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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2022

FTX

FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange Collapse

Estimated impact: $32B

F16

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 4 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

FTX, valued at $32 billion, collapsed in days after it was revealed that customer deposits had been commingled with its sister trading firm Alameda Research. The company operated without a board of directors, and investors performed minimal due diligence, deferring to founder Sam Bankman-Fried's perceived authority.

Decision context

Whether investors, auditors, and regulators should have demanded standard corporate governance structures, independent boards, and segregation of customer funds before extending trust and capital.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Authority BiasGroupthinkOverconfidence BiasHalo Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

FTX — 4 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 4 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Yes Committee
Golden Child

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Authority bias toward charismatic founders can cause sophisticated investors to abandon basic due diligence.
The absence of a functioning board of directors is a critical governance red flag regardless of a company's valuation.
Commingling customer funds with proprietary trading is a fundamental violation of fiduciary duty that no amount of innovation justifies.

Source: FTX Debtors' First Interim Report, Chapter 11 Case No. 22-11068 (2023); SEC v. Samuel Bankman-Fried complaint (SEC Filing)

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Related cases in Financial Services

Catastrophic failure2008

Lehman Brothers

Lehman Brothers Collapse

Catastrophic failure2007

Bear Stearns

Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse

Failure2012

JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan London Whale Trading Losses

Lessons learned

Authority bias toward charismatic founders can cause sophisticated investors to abandon basic due diligence.

The absence of a functioning board of directors is a critical governance red flag regardless of a company's valuation.

Commingling customer funds with proprietary trading is a fundamental violation of fiduciary duty that no amount of innovation justifies.