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All case studies

Catastrophic failureTechnology2011

Hewlett-Packard

HP-Autonomy Acquisition Write-Down

Estimated impact: $8.8B write-down

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

HP acquired UK software firm Autonomy for $11.1B, then wrote down $8.8B just one year later, alleging Autonomy had inflated revenue through fraudulent accounting. HP's due diligence failed to detect alleged channel stuffing and hardware sales disguised as software licenses.

Decision context

Whether to proceed with the acquisition at a 64% premium despite concerns raised by Autonomy's own CFO (who was later fired) and short seller warnings about revenue quality.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Confirmation BiasAnchoring BiasOverconfidence BiasAuthority BiasPlanning Fallacy

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Hewlett-Packard — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Blind Sprint
Optimism Trap

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Confirmation bias in M&A due diligence means deal teams seek to validate the acquisition thesis rather than stress-test it
Anchoring to a strategic narrative (pivot to software) can override financial red flags in target company metrics
When a CFO of the target raises concerns and is fired, acquirers should treat this as a major red flag, not a resolved issue

Source: HP SEC filing (2012); U.S. DOJ fraud charges against Autonomy executives (2018) (SEC Filing)

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Lessons learned

Confirmation bias in M&A due diligence means deal teams seek to validate the acquisition thesis rather than stress-test it

Anchoring to a strategic narrative (pivot to software) can override financial red flags in target company metrics

When a CFO of the target raises concerns and is fired, acquirers should treat this as a major red flag, not a resolved issue