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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2021

Greensill Capital

Greensill Capital Collapse

Estimated impact: $10B+ in frozen funds; 3,000+ jobs at risk in GFG Alliance

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Supply chain finance firm collapsed when Credit Suisse froze $10B in linked funds. Greensill had been financing "prospective receivables" (invoices that didn't yet exist) and concentrated exposure in Sanjeev Gupta's GFG Alliance.

Decision context

Founder Lex Greensill convinced Credit Suisse asset management and SoftBank to back increasingly aggressive lending against future receivables. Insurance coverage from Tokio Marine was not renewed but this was not disclosed to fund investors.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Authority BiasConfirmation BiasOverconfidence BiasBandwagon EffectGroupthink

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Greensill Capital — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Yes Committee
Echo Chamber

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Supply chain finance against prospective receivables is unsecured lending in disguise
Insurance coverage status must be continuously verified, not assumed
Concentration risk in a single counterparty defeats the purpose of diversified trade finance

Source: UK Parliament Treasury Committee report on Greensill Capital, 2021; FT investigation (News Investigation)

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