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All case studies

Catastrophic failureAerospace1999

NASA / Lockheed Martin

Mars Climate Orbiter Unit Conversion Failure

Estimated impact: $125M spacecraft destroyed

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

The $125M Mars Climate Orbiter was destroyed when it entered Mars' atmosphere at too low an altitude. The root cause was a unit mismatch: Lockheed Martin's software output thrust data in pound-force-seconds while NASA's navigation software expected newton-seconds.

Decision context

Whether NASA's verification and validation process should have caught the unit mismatch during the 9-month cruise phase, during which trajectory deviations were observed but attributed to other causes.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Cognitive MiseringConfirmation BiasGroupthinkHindsight BiasStatus Quo Bias

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

NASA / Lockheed Martin — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Status Quo Lock
Echo Chamber

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Cognitive misering: trajectory deviations during the cruise phase were observed but corrected without investigating root cause
Confirmation bias: engineers assumed the navigation model was correct and attributed discrepancies to solar radiation pressure
Interface specification reviews between contractors and NASA were insufficient — unit conventions were not explicitly verified

Source: NASA Mars Climate Orbiter Mishap Investigation Board Phase I Report (1999) (Post Mortem)

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Lessons learned

Cognitive misering: trajectory deviations during the cruise phase were observed but corrected without investigating root cause

Confirmation bias: engineers assumed the navigation model was correct and attributed discrepancies to solar radiation pressure

Interface specification reviews between contractors and NASA were insufficient — unit conventions were not explicitly verified