Pacific Gas and Electric
PG&E Camp Fire Liability
Estimated impact: $13.5B
PG&E's failure to maintain aging transmission infrastructure caused the Camp Fire, the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history. The fire killed 85 people and destroyed 18,804 structures. PG&E had deferred maintenance and vegetation management for years despite knowing its equipment posed wildfire risks.
Decision context
Whether to invest in replacing aging transmission lines and aggressive vegetation management in high-risk wildfire zones, or to continue deferring maintenance to reduce operating costs.
Decision anatomy
Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present
Biases present in the decision
★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome
Toxic combinations
Reference class base rates
Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:
Lessons learned
- Status quo bias in infrastructure maintenance means deferred spending accumulates as hidden risk until catastrophic failure.
- Cognitive misering in risk assessments leads utilities to treat wildfire risk as a low-probability event rather than updating for climate change.
- Loss aversion around short-term earnings prevents the capital investment needed to prevent long-term catastrophic losses.
Source: Cal Fire Investigation Report on Camp Fire (2019); PG&E Chapter 11 filing (2019) (Case Study)
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