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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2006

Amaranth Advisors

Amaranth Advisors Natural Gas Losses

Estimated impact: $6.6B

F12

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 6 biases detected, 3 toxic combinations

Multi-strategy hedge fund Amaranth lost $6.6B in a single week on leveraged natural gas futures positions. Trader Brian Hunter had accumulated positions that exceeded the fund's total capital, and risk limits were repeatedly raised to accommodate his growing bets.

Decision context

Whether to enforce position limits on natural gas trades or continue raising limits as the trader's positions grew larger and the fund became increasingly concentrated.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Anchoring BiasOverconfidence BiasHindsight BiasRecency BiasAuthority BiasGambler's Fallacy

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Amaranth Advisors — 6 biases, 3 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Recency Spiral
Yes Committee
Doubling Down

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Recency bias from Hunter's prior profitable natural gas trades led to risk limit increases rather than enforcement
Position concentration in illiquid commodity futures creates liquidity risk that cannot be hedged during a crisis
When a single trader generates the majority of fund profits, authority bias makes risk managers reluctant to constrain them

Source: U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, "Excessive Speculation in the Natural Gas Market" (2007) (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Recency bias from Hunter's prior profitable natural gas trades led to risk limit increases rather than enforcement

Position concentration in illiquid commodity futures creates liquidity risk that cannot be hedged during a crisis

When a single trader generates the majority of fund profits, authority bias makes risk managers reluctant to constrain them