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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services1984

Continental Illinois National Bank

Continental Illinois Bank Bailout

Estimated impact: $4.5B FDIC bailout

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Continental Illinois, the seventh-largest U.S. bank, collapsed after a run on wholesale deposits. The bank had purchased $1B in loan participations from Penn Square Bank without adequate due diligence, anchoring to Penn Square's reported quality metrics.

Decision context

Whether to continue purchasing energy loan participations from Penn Square Bank based on reported loan quality rather than independent underwriting review.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

Anchoring Bias★ Cognitive MiseringAuthority BiasConfirmation BiasOverconfidence Bias

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Continental Illinois National Bank — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Yes Committee
Blind Sprint

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Cognitive misering in loan participation reviews — accepting counterparty representations without independent analysis — creates hidden concentration risk
Wholesale funding dependence makes banks vulnerable to confidence-driven runs
The phrase "too big to fail" entered the regulatory lexicon from this case, revealing systemic risk blind spots

Source: FDIC History of the Eighties, Vol. 1, Ch. 7: Continental Illinois (1997) (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Cognitive misering in loan participation reviews — accepting counterparty representations without independent analysis — creates hidden concentration risk

Wholesale funding dependence makes banks vulnerable to confidence-driven runs

The phrase "too big to fail" entered the regulatory lexicon from this case, revealing systemic risk blind spots