Electric Reliability Council of Texas
Texas ERCOT Winter Storm Power Crisis
Estimated impact: $195B economic damage; 246 deaths
Winter Storm Uri caused catastrophic power grid failure in Texas, leaving 4.5 million homes without power for days in freezing temperatures. 246 people died. ERCOT and Texas regulators had rejected winterization requirements after a similar 2011 event, citing costs.
Decision context
Whether to mandate and enforce winterization standards for power generation and natural gas infrastructure after the 2011 winter storm exposed the same vulnerabilities.
Biases present in the decision
Toxic combinations
- Recency Spiral
- Status Quo Lock
Reference class base rates
Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:
Lessons learned
- Recency bias: a decade of mild winters after 2011 eroded the urgency of winterization mandates
- The exact failure modes from 2011 recurred in 2021 because recommendations were advisory, not mandatory
- Hindsight bias: the 2011 FERC/NERC report explicitly predicted the 2021 failure, but its recommendations were ignored
Source: FERC/NERC Joint Report on February 2021 Cold Weather Grid Operations (2021); Texas House Committee Investigation (Post Mortem)
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