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Which cognitive biases caused Three Arrows Capital's collapse?

5 bias patterns are documented in this case, led by Recency Bias. The full set: Overconfidence Bias, Recency Bias, Confirmation Bias, Anchoring Bias, Hindsight Bias. Each is mapped to Decision Intel's 22-bias R²F taxonomy with stable IDs and academic citations.

What is Decision Intel's reasoning audit?

Decision Intel runs a 12-node Recognition-Rigor Framework (R²F) pipeline on strategic memos, detecting cognitive biases from a 22-bias canonical taxonomy and producing a Decision Quality Index (DQI) score. The audit produces a hashed, tamper-evident Decision Provenance Record (DPR) suitable for audit-committee review.

All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2022

Three Arrows Capital

Three Arrows Capital Insolvency

Estimated impact: $3.5B in creditor losses

F14

Decision Quality Index (simulated)

Critical · 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Crypto hedge fund 3AC defaulted on $3.5B in loans from multiple lenders after making concentrated, leveraged bets on LUNA/UST and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Founders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies had publicly promoted positions they were secretly unwinding.

Decision context

Whether to maintain highly concentrated, leveraged positions in correlated crypto assets without adequate hedging or liquidity reserves.

Decision anatomy

Monetary stakes

Very high

Dissent suppressed

Yes

Time pressure

Present

Unanimous consensus

Yes

Decision participants

Dissent encouraged

External advisors

Iterative process

Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

Overconfidence Bias

high

★Recency Bias

critical

Confirmation Bias

high

Anchoring Bias

high

Hindsight Bias

medium

★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Three Arrows Capital · 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

!Recency Spiral

Compound cognitive failure pattern identified in this decision.

!Optimism Trap

Overconfidence and availability bias create a systematically positive outlook that ignores base rates.

Reference class base rates

Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:

89%

base failure rate

-0%

partial / mixed

11%

base success rate

■ Failure■ Partial■ Success

Lessons learned

Recency bias from crypto bull markets led to position sizing that assumed perpetual upward trends
Counterparty risk in crypto lending is amplified by opacity — lenders had no visibility into total exposure
Hindsight bias after the collapse obscured that many participants knowingly accepted concentrated risk for yield

Source: Three Arrows Capital liquidation proceedings, BVI Commercial Court (2022); BlockFi bankruptcy filings (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Recency bias from crypto bull markets led to position sizing that assumed perpetual upward trends

Counterparty risk in crypto lending is amplified by opacity — lenders had no visibility into total exposure

Hindsight bias after the collapse obscured that many participants knowingly accepted concentrated risk for yield