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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2022

Three Arrows Capital

Three Arrows Capital Insolvency

Estimated impact: $3.5B in creditor losses

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Crypto hedge fund 3AC defaulted on $3.5B in loans from multiple lenders after making concentrated, leveraged bets on LUNA/UST and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Founders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies had publicly promoted positions they were secretly unwinding.

Decision context

Whether to maintain highly concentrated, leveraged positions in correlated crypto assets without adequate hedging or liquidity reserves.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

Overconfidence Bias★ Recency BiasConfirmation BiasAnchoring BiasHindsight Bias

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Three Arrows Capital — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Recency Spiral
Optimism Trap

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Recency bias from crypto bull markets led to position sizing that assumed perpetual upward trends
Counterparty risk in crypto lending is amplified by opacity — lenders had no visibility into total exposure
Hindsight bias after the collapse obscured that many participants knowingly accepted concentrated risk for yield

Source: Three Arrows Capital liquidation proceedings, BVI Commercial Court (2022); BlockFi bankruptcy filings (Case Study)

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Failure2012

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JPMorgan London Whale Trading Losses

Lessons learned

Recency bias from crypto bull markets led to position sizing that assumed perpetual upward trends

Counterparty risk in crypto lending is amplified by opacity — lenders had no visibility into total exposure

Hindsight bias after the collapse obscured that many participants knowingly accepted concentrated risk for yield