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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2011

MF Global

MF Global Bankruptcy

Estimated impact: $1.6B

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Under CEO Jon Corzine's leadership, MF Global made a $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign debt using repo-to-maturity transactions. When European debt prices fell, margin calls drained the firm's liquidity, and $1.6 billion in customer funds were improperly used to meet obligations.

Decision context

Whether to approve CEO Corzine's strategy of leveraged bets on European sovereign bonds as a path to transforming MF Global from a brokerage into an investment bank.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Overconfidence BiasAnchoring BiasAuthority BiasGroupthinkSunk Cost Fallacy

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

MF Global — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Yes Committee
Sunk Ship

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

A CEO's prior political stature and reputation can create authority bias that suppresses board-level risk oversight.
Concentrated directional bets funded by customer money violate the fundamental trust of brokerage operations.
Anchoring to past success in government bond markets ignores the different risk profile of sovereign credit exposure.

Source: CFTC v. MF Global Inc. complaint; SIPA Trustee's Report on MF Global (2013) (SEC Filing)

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Lessons learned

A CEO's prior political stature and reputation can create authority bias that suppresses board-level risk oversight.

Concentrated directional bets funded by customer money violate the fundamental trust of brokerage operations.

Anchoring to past success in government bond markets ignores the different risk profile of sovereign credit exposure.