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All case studies

Catastrophic failureEnergy2011

Solyndra

Solyndra Bankruptcy

Estimated impact: $535M

F17

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 1 toxic combinations

Solar panel manufacturer Solyndra received a $535 million federal loan guarantee and then filed for bankruptcy within two years. The company's cylindrical panel design was more expensive than conventional flat panels, and plummeting silicon prices destroyed its cost advantage. Leadership and government backers ignored market signals indicating the technology was economically unviable.

Decision context

Whether to extend a $535 million federal loan guarantee to Solyndra despite declining silicon prices that were eroding the company's cost competitiveness against conventional solar panels.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Overconfidence BiasConfirmation BiasPlanning FallacyAnchoring BiasBandwagon Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Solyndra — 5 biases, 1 toxic combination

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Optimism Trap

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Overconfidence in a differentiated technology can blind investors to commodity price dynamics that undermine the value proposition.
Planning fallacy in clean energy ventures often overestimates market adoption timelines and underestimates competitive threats.
Government loan guarantees should incorporate dynamic reassessment triggers tied to market condition changes.

Source: U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee Investigation (2011); DOE Loan Programs Office records (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Overconfidence in a differentiated technology can blind investors to commodity price dynamics that undermine the value proposition.

Planning fallacy in clean energy ventures often overestimates market adoption timelines and underestimates competitive threats.

Government loan guarantees should incorporate dynamic reassessment triggers tied to market condition changes.