U.S. Army / Boeing / Sikorsky
RAH-66 Comanche Helicopter Cancellation
Estimated impact: $6.9B with zero operational aircraft produced
After 22 years of development and $6.9B spent, the U.S. Army cancelled the RAH-66 Comanche stealth reconnaissance helicopter without producing a single operational aircraft. Requirements changed repeatedly, and the program survived through continuous congressional support despite failing to deliver.
Decision context
Whether to continue funding a program that had been in development for two decades, consumed $6.9B, and still had no production-ready aircraft.
Decision anatomy
Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present
Biases present in the decision
★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome
Toxic combinations
Reference class base rates
Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:
Lessons learned
- Sunk cost fallacy in defense procurement: each year's investment made cancellation seem more wasteful than continuation
- Requirements creep over 22 years meant the original mission need evolved while the program tried to hit a moving target
- Status quo bias: the program survived annual budget reviews because cancelling it required active political courage while continuing it was the default
Source: GAO Report GAO-04-828, "Comanche Helicopter" (2004) (Post Mortem)
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Workflows that fire on decisions like U.S. Army / Boeing / Sikorsky’s
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