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All case studies

Partial failureGovernment2008

U.S. Navy / Bath Iron Works

Zumwalt-Class Destroyer Cost Overruns

Estimated impact: $22.5B for 3 ships; mission capability gap

D44

Decision Quality Index

Poor — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Originally planned as 32 ships at $1.3B each, the Zumwalt-class stealth destroyer program was cut to just 3 ships at $7.8B each. The Advanced Gun System's ammunition costs $800,000 per round, making the gun effectively unusable. The ship cannot fulfill its original shore bombardment mission.

Decision context

Whether to continue a program whose unit costs escalated 6x due to quantity reductions, and whether to field a gun system whose ammunition is too expensive to use.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Sunk Cost FallacyPlanning FallacyAnchoring BiasOptimism BiasGroupthink

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

U.S. Navy / Bath Iron Works — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Sunk Ship
Optimism Trap

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Sunk cost fallacy in defense: once billions are invested, cancellation becomes politically harder than continuation at any cost
Planning fallacy in defense acquisition systematically underestimates costs by assuming economies of scale that evaporate when quantities are cut
Anchoring to the original 32-ship plan made each quantity reduction feel temporary rather than fundamental

Source: GAO Report GAO-16-613, "DDG-1000 Destroyer Program" (2016) (Post Mortem)

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Related cases in Government

Catastrophic failure2014

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

VA Health System Wait Time Scandal

Failure2013

US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

Healthcare.gov Launch Failure

Partial failure2001

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Lessons learned

Sunk cost fallacy in defense: once billions are invested, cancellation becomes politically harder than continuation at any cost

Planning fallacy in defense acquisition systematically underestimates costs by assuming economies of scale that evaporate when quantities are cut

Anchoring to the original 32-ship plan made each quantity reduction feel temporary rather than fundamental