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All case studies

Catastrophic failureAerospace2018

Boeing

Boeing 737 MAX MCAS Design Failures

Estimated impact: $20B

F12

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 7 biases detected, 4 toxic combinations

Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft crashed twice in five months, killing 346 people. The MCAS flight control system, designed to compensate for engine placement changes, relied on a single angle-of-attack sensor and was not disclosed to pilots. Boeing prioritized schedule and cost over safety, committing sunk cost fallacy by building on the aging 737 platform rather than designing a new aircraft.

Decision context

Whether to design a new narrowbody aircraft or retrofit the 50-year-old 737 airframe with larger engines, adding software patches to compensate for aerodynamic compromises.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

Overconfidence Bias★ Sunk Cost FallacyAuthority BiasGroupthinkPlanning FallacyHalo EffectZeigarnik Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Boeing — 7 biases, 4 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 7 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Sunk Ship
Yes Committee
Golden Child
Deadline Panic

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Sunk cost fallacy in the 737 platform investment led Boeing to patch an aging design rather than invest in a purpose-built replacement.
Overconfidence in software solutions to compensate for hardware compromises introduced single points of failure.
Authority bias within the FAA's delegated inspection program allowed Boeing to self-certify safety-critical systems.

Source: U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, "Final Committee Report on the Boeing 737 MAX" (2020) (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Sunk cost fallacy in the 737 platform investment led Boeing to patch an aging design rather than invest in a purpose-built replacement.

Overconfidence in software solutions to compensate for hardware compromises introduced single points of failure.

Authority bias within the FAA's delegated inspection program allowed Boeing to self-certify safety-critical systems.