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All case studies

Catastrophic failureAerospace1986

NASA

NASA Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster

Estimated impact: $3.2B (shuttle replacement cost); 7 lives

F12

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 6 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

The Space Shuttle Challenger broke apart 73 seconds after launch, killing all seven crew members. Morton Thiokol engineers had warned that O-ring seals in the solid rocket boosters would fail in cold temperatures, but NASA management overrode their objections due to schedule pressure and political considerations.

Decision context

Whether to proceed with the Challenger launch on January 28, 1986, despite engineer warnings that cold temperatures could cause O-ring failure in the solid rocket booster joints.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ GroupthinkAuthority BiasAvailability HeuristicOverconfidence BiasFraming EffectZeigarnik Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

NASA — 6 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Yes Committee
Deadline Panic

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

When engineers raise safety objections and management demands they "prove it is unsafe" rather than "prove it is safe," the burden of proof has been fatally inverted.
Authority bias caused Thiokol engineers to reverse their no-launch recommendation when pressured by NASA management.
Availability heuristic led NASA to treat prior successful launches with O-ring erosion as evidence of safety rather than warning signs.

Source: Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident (Rogers Commission Report, 1986); NASA Report RSC-86-0137 (NTSB Report)

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NASA

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Air France Flight 447 Crash

Lessons learned

When engineers raise safety objections and management demands they "prove it is unsafe" rather than "prove it is safe," the burden of proof has been fatally inverted.

Authority bias caused Thiokol engineers to reverse their no-launch recommendation when pressured by NASA management.

Availability heuristic led NASA to treat prior successful launches with O-ring erosion as evidence of safety rather than warning signs.