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All case studies

Catastrophic failureEnergy2010

BP

BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Estimated impact: $65B

F12

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 6 biases detected, 3 toxic combinations

The Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 workers and causing the largest marine oil spill in history. BP and its contractors ignored multiple warning signs including failed cement tests and anomalous pressure readings, prioritizing schedule adherence over safety protocols.

Decision context

Whether to proceed with well completion operations despite failed negative pressure tests and multiple indicators that the cement barrier at the well bottom was compromised.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Overconfidence BiasSunk Cost FallacyCognitive MiseringGroupthinkAuthority BiasZeigarnik Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

BP — 6 biases, 3 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Blind Sprint
Sunk Ship
Deadline Panic

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Schedule pressure ("the rig is $1M/day") creates cognitive misering that shortcuts critical safety analysis.
Sunk cost fallacy in well completion means teams push forward with a compromised well rather than abandoning costly work.
Multiple independent warning signs dismissed in sequence represent a systemic failure of organizational decision-making.

Source: National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, Final Report (2011) (Case Study)

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Catastrophic failure2018

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Catastrophic failure2011

Solyndra

Solyndra Bankruptcy

Lessons learned

Schedule pressure ("the rig is $1M/day") creates cognitive misering that shortcuts critical safety analysis.

Sunk cost fallacy in well completion means teams push forward with a compromised well rather than abandoning costly work.

Multiple independent warning signs dismissed in sequence represent a systemic failure of organizational decision-making.