How is sensitive data protected?

All documents are encrypted with AES-256-GCM at rest and TLS 1.2+ in transit. A GDPR anonymization layer removes PII before any AI processing. Hosted on Vercel + Supabase (both SOC 2 Type II); Decision Intel’s own product-level audit is targeted for Q4 2026.

How long does integration take?

Less than 30 minutes. Upload documents directly, connect via OAuth for Slack, or use our REST API for bulk processing.

How does outcome tracking work?

Outcomes are detected automatically from follow-up documents, Slack messages, and web intelligence. You confirm with one click. Each reported outcome makes your future analyses more accurate.

How is Decision Intel different from ChatGPT or a general AI assistant?

ChatGPT gives one opinion from one model: ungoverned, untraceable, unaudited. Decision Intel is the reasoning audit platform. Most tools audit your data; we audit your reasoning — and catch the fatal blind spots in strategic memos before the committee does. It measures the noise in your reasoning the same way Kahneman did in the insurance underwriter study, simulates an AI boardroom of CEO, CFO, and board personas, runs what-if interventions against a 143-case public reference library, and compounds every confirmed outcome back into a calibrated Decision Quality Index your audit committee can defend. Not a chatbot; a reasoning audit, checkable from memo to outcome.

Which cognitive biases caused Carillion plc's collapse?

5 bias patterns are documented in this case, led by Optimism Bias. The full set: Optimism Bias, Sunk Cost Fallacy, Groupthink, Framing Effect, Overconfidence Bias. Each is mapped to Decision Intel's 22-bias R²F taxonomy with stable IDs and academic citations.

What is Decision Intel's reasoning audit?

Decision Intel runs a 12-node Recognition-Rigor Framework (R²F) pipeline on strategic memos, detecting cognitive biases from a 22-bias canonical taxonomy and producing a Decision Quality Index (DQI) score. The audit produces a hashed, tamper-evident Decision Provenance Record (DPR) suitable for audit-committee review.

All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2018

Carillion plc

Carillion Collapse

Estimated impact: £7B in liabilities; 43,000 jobs at risk

F14

Decision Quality Index (simulated)

Critical · 5 biases detected, 3 toxic combinations

UK construction and outsourcing giant Carillion collapsed with £7B in liabilities and a pension deficit of £2.6B. The board continued paying dividends and awarding bonuses while the company was insolvent, using aggressive accounting to delay recognition of contract losses.

Decision context

Whether to continue bidding aggressively on low-margin government contracts and paying dividends despite deteriorating cash flow and mounting contract provisions.

Decision anatomy

Monetary stakes

Very high

Dissent suppressed

Yes

Time pressure

Present

Unanimous consensus

Yes

Decision participants

Dissent encouraged

External advisors

Iterative process

Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★Optimism Bias

critical

Sunk Cost Fallacy

high

Groupthink

high

Framing Effect

medium

Overconfidence Bias

high

★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Carillion plc · 5 biases, 3 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

!Optimism Trap

Overconfidence and availability bias create a systematically positive outlook that ignores base rates.

!Sunk Ship

Commitment to a failing course escalates to justify sunk costs, even as evidence mounts.

!Conglomerate Fallacy

Far-adjacency acquisition justified by target growth and brand halo with no answer to "why us as parent" — Porter parenting-advantage absent.

Reference class base rates

Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:

89%

base failure rate

-0%

partial / mixed

11%

base success rate

■ Failure■ Partial■ Success

Lessons learned

Optimism bias in contract accounting delayed loss recognition until positions were irrecoverable
Paying dividends from a cash-negative company is a framing effect that signals health while destroying value
Government procurement that selects the lowest bidder without assessing contractor financial resilience creates systemic risk

Source: UK Parliament Joint Inquiry into Carillion, HC 769 (2018) (Case Study)

Pilot slots available

We caught these patterns in Carillion plc's own record — before the outcome.

See the full bias auditwe ran — no login, no card. Then run the same 60-second audit on your own next memo.

See a live audit · no login Audit your own memo

Or leave your email, we'll run a strategic memo of your choosing and send the readout within a business day.

Audit your own decision

Workflows that fire on decisions like Carillion plc’s

The same Recognition-Rigor Framework that documents this case audits memos in the same shape — before the outcome forces the lesson.

For CSOs and Heads of Strategic Planning

Strategic memo audit

Audit a strategic memo for cognitive bias and forecast errors in 60 seconds — before the board sees it.

Audit a strategic memo

For Heads of Corp Dev and M&A advisors

M&A bias audit

Audit an acquisition thesis for the three named M&A failure patterns: Synergy Mirage, Conglomerate Fallacy, Winner's Curse.

Audit an acquisition thesis

For Heads of Corp Dev and Investment Committee chairs

IC memo pre-vote stress test

Stress-test an investment committee memo before the vote — catch Synergy Mirage, Winner's Curse, and Conglomerate Fallacy.

Audit your IC memo

See all 6 workflows for the full audit-tool surface.

Related cases in Financial Services

Catastrophic failure2006

Pfizer

Pfizer Torcetrapib Clinical Trial Failure

Catastrophic failure2011

MF Global

MF Global Bankruptcy

Catastrophic failure2022

Celsius Network

Celsius Network Bankruptcy

Catastrophic failure2008

Washington Mutual

Washington Mutual Bank Failure

Toxic combinations

!Optimism Trap

Overconfidence and availability bias create a systematically positive outlook that ignores base rates.

!Sunk Ship

Commitment to a failing course escalates to justify sunk costs, even as evidence mounts.

!Conglomerate Fallacy

Far-adjacency acquisition justified by target growth and brand halo with no answer to "why us as parent" — Porter parenting-advantage absent.

Lessons learned

Optimism bias in contract accounting delayed loss recognition until positions were irrecoverable

Paying dividends from a cash-negative company is a framing effect that signals health while destroying value

Government procurement that selects the lowest bidder without assessing contractor financial resilience creates systemic risk