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All case studies

Catastrophic failureFinancial Services2018

Carillion plc

Carillion Collapse

Estimated impact: £7B in liabilities; 43,000 jobs at risk

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

UK construction and outsourcing giant Carillion collapsed with £7B in liabilities and a pension deficit of £2.6B. The board continued paying dividends and awarding bonuses while the company was insolvent, using aggressive accounting to delay recognition of contract losses.

Decision context

Whether to continue bidding aggressively on low-margin government contracts and paying dividends despite deteriorating cash flow and mounting contract provisions.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Optimism BiasSunk Cost FallacyGroupthinkFraming EffectOverconfidence Bias

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Carillion plc — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Optimism Trap
Sunk Ship

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Optimism bias in contract accounting delayed loss recognition until positions were irrecoverable
Paying dividends from a cash-negative company is a framing effect that signals health while destroying value
Government procurement that selects the lowest bidder without assessing contractor financial resilience creates systemic risk

Source: UK Parliament Joint Inquiry into Carillion, HC 769 (2018) (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Optimism bias in contract accounting delayed loss recognition until positions were irrecoverable

Paying dividends from a cash-negative company is a framing effect that signals health while destroying value

Government procurement that selects the lowest bidder without assessing contractor financial resilience creates systemic risk