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All case studies

FailureGovernment2020

Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH

Berlin Brandenburg Airport Delays

Estimated impact: €4B over budget; 9 years late

F28

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 6 biases detected, 3 toxic combinations

Berlin's new airport (BER) opened 9 years late and €4B over its original €2B budget. The fire suppression system was so fundamentally flawed that the entire building had to be partially reconstructed. Political interference, contractor mismanagement, and suppressed bad news from supervisory boards.

Decision context

Whether to maintain the original opening date of 2011 despite construction defects that engineers had flagged, or to delay and address fundamental fire safety system failures.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Planning FallacyOptimism BiasGroupthinkAuthority BiasSunk Cost FallacyZeigarnik Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH — 6 biases, 3 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Optimism Trap
Yes Committee
Deadline Panic

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy in mega-projects: Berlin BER is a textbook case of anchoring to initial timelines and budgets despite compound delays
Political appointees on the supervisory board suppressed bad news to avoid electoral consequences
Optimism bias: each new opening date was announced with the same confidence as the last, despite the pattern of delays

Source: German Federal Court of Auditors BER Airport Report (2016); Süddeutsche Zeitung investigation (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Planning fallacy in mega-projects: Berlin BER is a textbook case of anchoring to initial timelines and budgets despite compound delays

Political appointees on the supervisory board suppressed bad news to avoid electoral consequences

Optimism bias: each new opening date was announced with the same confidence as the last, despite the pattern of delays