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Which cognitive biases caused Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH's failure?

6 bias patterns are documented in this case, led by Planning Fallacy. The full set: Planning Fallacy, Optimism Bias, Groupthink, Authority Bias, Sunk Cost Fallacy. Each is mapped to Decision Intel's 22-bias R²F taxonomy with stable IDs and academic citations.

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All case studies

FailureGovernment2020

Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH

Berlin Brandenburg Airport Delays

Estimated impact: €4B over budget; 9 years late

F28

Decision Quality Index (simulated)

Critical · 6 biases detected, 3 toxic combinations

Berlin's new airport (BER) opened 9 years late and €4B over its original €2B budget. The fire suppression system was so fundamentally flawed that the entire building had to be partially reconstructed. Political interference, contractor mismanagement, and suppressed bad news from supervisory boards.

Decision context

Whether to maintain the original opening date of 2011 despite construction defects that engineers had flagged, or to delay and address fundamental fire safety system failures.

Decision anatomy

Monetary stakes

Very high

Dissent suppressed

Yes

Time pressure

Present

Unanimous consensus

Yes

Decision participants

Dissent encouraged

External advisors

Iterative process

Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★Planning Fallacy

critical

Optimism Bias

medium

Groupthink

high

Authority Bias

high

Sunk Cost Fallacy

high

Zeigarnik Effect

medium

★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH · 6 biases, 3 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

!Optimism Trap

Overconfidence and availability bias create a systematically positive outlook that ignores base rates.

!Yes Committee

Authority bias meets groupthink: the group converges on whatever leadership signals it wants.

!Deadline Panic

Compound cognitive failure pattern identified in this decision.

Reference class base rates

Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:

89%

base failure rate

-0%

partial / mixed

11%

base success rate

■ Failure■ Partial■ Success

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy in mega-projects: Berlin BER is a textbook case of anchoring to initial timelines and budgets despite compound delays
Political appointees on the supervisory board suppressed bad news to avoid electoral consequences
Optimism bias: each new opening date was announced with the same confidence as the last, despite the pattern of delays

Source: German Federal Court of Auditors BER Airport Report (2016); Süddeutsche Zeitung investigation (Case Study)

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Failure2013

U.S. Federal Government (CMS)

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Partial failure2001

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Catastrophic failure2005

Federal Bureau of Investigation

FBI Virtual Case File Project Failure

Toxic combinations

!Optimism Trap

Overconfidence and availability bias create a systematically positive outlook that ignores base rates.

!Yes Committee

Authority bias meets groupthink: the group converges on whatever leadership signals it wants.

!Deadline Panic

Compound cognitive failure pattern identified in this decision.

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy in mega-projects: Berlin BER is a textbook case of anchoring to initial timelines and budgets despite compound delays

Political appointees on the supervisory board suppressed bad news to avoid electoral consequences

Optimism bias: each new opening date was announced with the same confidence as the last, despite the pattern of delays