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All case studies

FailureGovernment2013

U.S. Federal Government (CMS)

Healthcare.gov Launch Disaster

Estimated impact: $1.7B+ wasted; massive political damage; delayed healthcare coverage for millions

F30

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

The launch of Healthcare.gov on October 1, 2013 was a catastrophic technical failure. The site crashed almost immediately, with only 6 people successfully enrolling on day one out of 250,000 who attempted. The project cost over $1.7 billion, involved 55 contractors with no single integrator, and ignored repeated warnings from engineers that the system was not ready. Planning fallacy led to unrealistic timelines, authority bias caused political leaders to overrule technical concerns, and groupthink among officials prevented honest assessment of readiness.

Decision context

Whether to launch the healthcare exchange website on the mandated October 1 deadline despite internal testing showing critical failures, or delay the launch and face political consequences.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Planning FallacyAuthority BiasGroupthinkOverconfidence BiasSunk Cost Fallacy

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

U.S. Federal Government (CMS) — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

The Blind Sprint
The Yes Committee

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy in government IT projects is endemic — the GAO found that 94% of large federal IT projects are over budget, behind schedule, or both.
Authority bias caused political leadership to override technical warnings about system readiness, treating the launch date as immovable.
The lack of a single system integrator across 55 contractors created diffusion of responsibility — no one owned the overall outcome.

Source: GAO Report GAO-14-694 (2014); Office of Inspector General Report OEI-06-14-00350; U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing transcripts (October 2013) (Post Mortem)

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Related cases in Government

Catastrophic failure2014

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

VA Health System Wait Time Scandal

Failure2013

US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

Healthcare.gov Launch Failure

Partial failure2001

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy in government IT projects is endemic — the GAO found that 94% of large federal IT projects are over budget, behind schedule, or both.

Authority bias caused political leadership to override technical warnings about system readiness, treating the launch date as immovable.

The lack of a single system integrator across 55 contractors created diffusion of responsibility — no one owned the overall outcome.