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All case studies

Partial failureGovernment2001

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Estimated impact: $170B+ in cost overruns; 10+ year delays

D40

Decision Quality Index

Poor — 7 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Originally estimated at $233B for 2,866 aircraft, the F-35 program has grown to $400B+ with decade-long delays. Concurrency strategy (building aircraft while still in development) locked in design flaws.

Decision context

DoD adopted "concurrent development" to accelerate delivery, building production aircraft before testing was complete. Initial cost estimates were knowingly optimistic to secure congressional funding. Three service variants increased complexity exponentially.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Planning FallacySunk Cost FallacyOverconfidence BiasAnchoring BiasGroupthinkOptimism BiasParadox of Choice

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin — 7 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 7 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Optimism Trap
Sunk Ship

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Concurrent development creates massive sunk cost traps when defects are found late
Multi-service requirement consolidation exponentially increases program risk
Initial cost anchors in defense procurement systematically underestimate by 40-80%

Source: GAO Report GAO-21-105, "F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: DOD Needs to Update Modernization Schedule," 2021 (Post Mortem)

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