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All case studies

Catastrophic failureEnergy2015

General Electric

GE Alstom Power Acquisition

Estimated impact: $22B

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

GE acquired Alstom's power division for $10.6 billion in 2015, betting on continued growth in gas turbine demand. The acquisition coincided with a structural shift toward renewable energy, and GE ultimately wrote down $22 billion in goodwill. CEO Jeff Immelt's confidence in the deal suppressed internal dissent.

Decision context

Whether to acquire Alstom's power and grid business at a premium valuation while the global energy market was shifting from fossil fuels to renewables.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Anchoring BiasOverconfidence BiasSunk Cost FallacyConfirmation BiasPlanning Fallacy

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

General Electric — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Sunk Ship
Optimism Trap

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Anchoring to historical gas turbine demand growth blinded GE to the accelerating energy transition.
Sunk cost fallacy led GE to double down on power after the acquisition rather than pivoting when demand dropped.
Overconfidence in integration capabilities led to overpaying for an asset in a declining market.

Source: GE 2018 Annual Report (goodwill impairment); Thomas Gryta and Ted Mann, "Lights Out: Pride, Delusion, and the Fall of General Electric" (2020) (SEC Filing)

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Lessons learned

Anchoring to historical gas turbine demand growth blinded GE to the accelerating energy transition.

Sunk cost fallacy led GE to double down on power after the acquisition rather than pivoting when demand dropped.

Overconfidence in integration capabilities led to overpaying for an asset in a declining market.