General Motors
GM Ignition Switch Defect Cover-Up
Estimated impact: $4.1B in recalls, fines, and settlements; 124 deaths
GM knew about a faulty ignition switch since 2001 that could cut engine power and disable airbags. The defect was linked to 124 deaths and 275 injuries. Engineers had identified the problem but a cost-benefit analysis estimated the fix at $0.57 per car — and GM still delayed the recall for over a decade.
Decision context
Whether to recall vehicles with a known ignition switch defect when the per-unit fix cost was trivial but the total program cost and reputational impact of admitting a long-hidden defect were significant.
Decision anatomy
Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present
Biases present in the decision
★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome
Toxic combinations
Reference class base rates
Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:
Lessons learned
- Loss aversion around recall costs and reputational damage prevented action on a $0.57 fix for over a decade
- Status quo bias: the switch "passed" internal standards even though those standards were inadequate
- GM's internal culture of avoiding blame ("GM nod" and "GM salute") meant no individual took responsibility for escalating the defect
Source: Valukas Report (commissioned by GM Board, 2014); NHTSA investigation; DOJ Deferred Prosecution Agreement (2015) (Post Mortem)
We caught these patterns in General Motors's own record — before the outcome.
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Workflows that fire on decisions like General Motors’s
The same Recognition-Rigor Framework that documents this case audits memos in the same shape — before the outcome forces the lesson.