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All case studies

Catastrophic failureGovernment2005

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Hurricane Katrina FEMA Response Failure

Estimated impact: $125B in damage; 1,833 deaths; 1 million displaced

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

FEMA's response to Hurricane Katrina was catastrophically slow and disorganized. Director Michael Brown had no emergency management experience. Pre-positioned supplies were inadequate, communications failed, and the Superdome became a humanitarian crisis. 1,833 people died.

Decision context

Whether FEMA's pre-hurricane preparations and post-landfall response were adequate for a Category 5 hurricane hitting a major city below sea level, given that this exact scenario had been wargamed in Hurricane Pam exercise.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

Optimism Bias★ Planning FallacyCognitive MiseringAvailability HeuristicHindsight Bias

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Federal Emergency Management Agency — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Blind Sprint
Optimism Trap

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

The Hurricane Pam exercise in 2004 predicted the exact Katrina scenario, but its recommendations were unfunded — planning without resources is theater
Optimism bias: FEMA assumed state and local governments could handle the initial response, despite evidence that New Orleans lacked capacity
Hindsight bias after Katrina obscured that the failure was predicted and documented before it happened

Source: U.S. House Select Bipartisan Committee, "A Failure of Initiative" (2006); White House Federal Response to Katrina Report (2006) (Post Mortem)

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Related cases in Government

Catastrophic failure2014

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

VA Health System Wait Time Scandal

Failure2013

US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

Healthcare.gov Launch Failure

Partial failure2001

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Lessons learned

The Hurricane Pam exercise in 2004 predicted the exact Katrina scenario, but its recommendations were unfunded — planning without resources is theater

Optimism bias: FEMA assumed state and local governments could handle the initial response, despite evidence that New Orleans lacked capacity

Hindsight bias after Katrina obscured that the failure was predicted and documented before it happened