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All case studies

Catastrophic failureGovernment2005

Federal Bureau of Investigation

FBI Virtual Case File Project Failure

Estimated impact: $170M in taxpayer funds with zero usable output

F12

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 6 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

The FBI's Virtual Case File (VCF) project to modernize its case management system was abandoned after spending $170M over three years. The software was deemed unusable. Requirements changed 36 times during development, and the FBI lacked technical expertise to manage the contractor (SAIC).

Decision context

Whether to continue developing a custom case management system with constantly changing requirements, or adopt commercial off-the-shelf solutions.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Planning FallacySunk Cost FallacyOptimism BiasOverconfidence BiasAnchoring BiasParadox of Choice

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Federal Bureau of Investigation — 6 biases, 2 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Sunk Ship
Blind Sprint

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy: the FBI assumed custom software could be built in the same timeline as commercial products despite 36 requirements changes
Sunk cost: each milestone payment made abandonment harder, even as the project fell further behind
Government agencies without internal technical expertise cannot effectively manage large custom software projects

Source: DOJ Office of Inspector General Report 05-07 (2005) (Post Mortem)

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Related cases in Government

Catastrophic failure2014

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

VA Health System Wait Time Scandal

Failure2013

US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

Healthcare.gov Launch Failure

Partial failure2001

US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy: the FBI assumed custom software could be built in the same timeline as commercial products despite 36 requirements changes

Sunk cost: each milestone payment made abandonment harder, even as the project fell further behind

Government agencies without internal technical expertise cannot effectively manage large custom software projects