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How long does integration take?

Less than 30 minutes. Upload documents directly, connect via OAuth for Slack, or use our REST API for bulk processing.

How does outcome tracking work?

Outcomes are detected automatically from follow-up documents, Slack messages, and web intelligence. You confirm with one click. Each reported outcome makes your future analyses more accurate.

How is Decision Intel different from ChatGPT or a general AI assistant?

ChatGPT gives one opinion from one model: ungoverned, untraceable, unaudited. Decision Intel is the reasoning audit platform. Most tools audit your data; we audit your reasoning — and catch the fatal blind spots in strategic memos before the committee does. It measures the noise in your reasoning the same way Kahneman did in the insurance underwriter study, simulates an AI boardroom of CEO, CFO, and board personas, runs what-if interventions against a 143-case public reference library, and compounds every confirmed outcome back into a calibrated Decision Quality Index your audit committee can defend. Not a chatbot; a reasoning audit, checkable from memo to outcome.

Which cognitive biases caused Federal Bureau of Investigation's collapse?

6 bias patterns are documented in this case, led by Planning Fallacy. The full set: Planning Fallacy, Sunk Cost Fallacy, Optimism Bias, Overconfidence Bias, Anchoring Bias. Each is mapped to Decision Intel's 22-bias R²F taxonomy with stable IDs and academic citations.

What is Decision Intel's reasoning audit?

Decision Intel runs a 12-node Recognition-Rigor Framework (R²F) pipeline on strategic memos, detecting cognitive biases from a 22-bias canonical taxonomy and producing a Decision Quality Index (DQI) score. The audit produces a hashed, tamper-evident Decision Provenance Record (DPR) suitable for audit-committee review.

All case studies

Catastrophic failureGovernment2005

Federal Bureau of Investigation

FBI Virtual Case File Project Failure

Estimated impact: $170M in taxpayer funds with zero usable output

F12

Decision Quality Index (simulated)

Critical · 6 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

The FBI's Virtual Case File (VCF) project to modernize its case management system was abandoned after spending $170M over three years. The software was deemed unusable. Requirements changed 36 times during development, and the FBI lacked technical expertise to manage the contractor (SAIC).

Decision context

Whether to continue developing a custom case management system with constantly changing requirements, or adopt commercial off-the-shelf solutions.

Decision anatomy

Monetary stakes

Very high

Dissent suppressed

Time pressure

Present

Unanimous consensus

Decision participants

Dissent encouraged

External advisors

Iterative process

Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★Planning Fallacy

critical

Sunk Cost Fallacy

high

Optimism Bias

medium

Overconfidence Bias

high

Anchoring Bias

high

Paradox of Choice

medium

★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Federal Bureau of Investigation · 6 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

!Sunk Ship

Commitment to a failing course escalates to justify sunk costs, even as evidence mounts.

!Blind Sprint

Overconfidence combined with planning fallacy creates unstoppable momentum toward failure.

Reference class base rates

Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:

89%

base failure rate

-0%

partial / mixed

11%

base success rate

■ Failure■ Partial■ Success

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy: the FBI assumed custom software could be built in the same timeline as commercial products despite 36 requirements changes
Sunk cost: each milestone payment made abandonment harder, even as the project fell further behind
Government agencies without internal technical expertise cannot effectively manage large custom software projects

Source: DOJ Office of Inspector General Report 05-07 (2005) (Post Mortem)

Pilot slots available

We caught these patterns in Federal Bureau of Investigation's own record — before the outcome.

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Workflows that fire on decisions like Federal Bureau of Investigation’s

The same Recognition-Rigor Framework that documents this case audits memos in the same shape — before the outcome forces the lesson.

For CSOs and Heads of Strategic Planning

Strategic memo audit

Audit a strategic memo for cognitive bias and forecast errors in 60 seconds — before the board sees it.

Audit a strategic memo

For any high-stakes decision, before commitment

Decision pre-mortem

Run a structured pre-mortem before the decision is final — surface failure modes the room cannot see from the inside.

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For CSOs and CEOs presenting to a board

Board deck pre-presentation audit

Audit a board deck before the presentation — predict the toughest questions the room will ask.

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Related cases in Government

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US Department of Defense / Lockheed Martin

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Cost Overruns

Failure2013

UK Department for Work and Pensions

UK Universal Credit IT Disaster

Exceptional success2020

U.S. Federal Government (HHS/DoD)

Operation Warp Speed: COVID-19 Vaccine Development

Failure2013

US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

Healthcare.gov Launch Failure

All case studies

Catastrophic failureGovernment2005

Federal Bureau of Investigation

FBI Virtual Case File Project Failure

Estimated impact: $170M in taxpayer funds with zero usable output

F12

Decision Quality Index (simulated)

Critical · 6 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

Decision context

Whether to continue developing a custom case management system with constantly changing requirements, or adopt commercial off-the-shelf solutions.

Decision anatomy

Monetary stakes

Very high

Dissent suppressed

Time pressure

Present

Unanimous consensus

Decision participants

Dissent encouraged

External advisors

Iterative process

Red = risk factor present · Green = protective factor present

Biases present in the decision

★Planning Fallacy

critical

Sunk Cost Fallacy

high

Optimism Bias

medium

Overconfidence Bias

high

Anchoring Bias

high

Paradox of Choice

medium

★ Primary driver · Severity estimated from bias type and decision outcome

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

Federal Bureau of Investigation · 6 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

!Sunk Ship

Commitment to a failing course escalates to justify sunk costs, even as evidence mounts.

!Blind Sprint

Overconfidence combined with planning fallacy creates unstoppable momentum toward failure.

Reference class base rates

Across all 143 curated case studies in our library:

89%

base failure rate

-0%

partial / mixed

11%

base success rate

■ Failure■ Partial■ Success

Lessons learned

Planning fallacy: the FBI assumed custom software could be built in the same timeline as commercial products despite 36 requirements changes
Sunk cost: each milestone payment made abandonment harder, even as the project fell further behind
Government agencies without internal technical expertise cannot effectively manage large custom software projects

Source: DOJ Office of Inspector General Report 05-07 (2005) (Post Mortem)

Pilot slots available