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All case studies

Catastrophic failureRetail2018

MoviePass / Helios & Matheson

MoviePass Subscription Collapse

Estimated impact: $300M+ investor losses

F14

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 5 biases detected, 2 toxic combinations

MoviePass offered unlimited movie tickets for $9.95/month when single tickets cost $12+, assuming scale would force theaters to share revenue. Burned through $40M/month with no path to profitability.

Decision context

CEO Mitch Lowe and parent company HMNY leadership believed subscriber volume would create negotiating leverage with AMC and Regal. They rejected financial models showing unsustainable burn rate, citing "disruption" narratives.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

Overconfidence Bias★ Planning FallacyConfirmation BiasBandwagon EffectOptimism Bias

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

MoviePass / Helios & Matheson — 5 biases, 2 toxic combinations

Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click to explore

Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 5 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Optimism Trap
Blind Sprint

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Unit economics must work before scaling
Platform negotiating leverage requires genuine alternatives for counterparties
Disruption narratives cannot override basic financial math

Source: SEC Filing, Helios & Matheson Analytics, 2018; Vanity Fair investigation (SEC Filing)

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