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All case studies

Catastrophic failureEnergy2017

South Carolina Electric & Gas / Westinghouse

V.C. Summer Nuclear Expansion Abandonment

Estimated impact: $9B in sunk costs; $2B charged to ratepayers for zero output

F12

Decision Quality Index

Critical — 6 biases detected, 3 toxic combinations

South Carolina abandoned construction of two AP1000 nuclear reactors at V.C. Summer after spending $9B. Westinghouse (the reactor builder) went bankrupt. Ratepayers were charged $2B for reactors that will never generate electricity. Internal documents showed executives knew the project was failing years before public disclosure.

Decision context

Whether to continue nuclear construction when internal cost estimates showed the project was billions over budget and years behind schedule, or disclose the true status to regulators and ratepayers.

Deep hindsight-stripped analysis coming soon. This case is part of our ongoing backfill to reconstruct what the platform would have flagged at decision time. The summary and bias profile below are drawn from primary sources.

Biases present in the decision

★ Sunk Cost FallacyOptimism BiasPlanning FallacyFraming EffectAuthority BiasZeigarnik Effect

3D Decision Knowledge Graph

South Carolina Electric & Gas / Westinghouse — 6 biases, 3 toxic combinations

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Decision

Critical

High

Medium

Toxic

Bias Intensity Profile

Severity × confidence across 6 detected biases

Toxic combinations

Sunk Ship
Blind Sprint
Deadline Panic

Reference class base rates

Across all 146 curated case studies in our library:

90%

base failure rate

10%

base success rate

Lessons learned

Sunk cost fallacy: $9B already spent made abandonment seem more wasteful than continued spending, even when completion was economically impossible
Planning fallacy in nuclear construction is extreme — no AP1000 reactor has been built on time or on budget globally
Framing progress in terms of percentage complete rather than remaining cost disguised the accelerating overruns

Source: South Carolina House Legislative Oversight Committee investigation (2018); Westinghouse bankruptcy filing (2017) (Case Study)

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Lessons learned

Sunk cost fallacy: $9B already spent made abandonment seem more wasteful than continued spending, even when completion was economically impossible

Planning fallacy in nuclear construction is extreme — no AP1000 reactor has been built on time or on budget globally

Framing progress in terms of percentage complete rather than remaining cost disguised the accelerating overruns